The Seven Dwarfs

I don't have an apartment related fiasco to share. I mean, the power went out in my lilly white neighborhood for about twenty minutes last weekend, and sure, there was panicking on my part, but it was brief and muted. Within a relatively short period of time, order was restored. I also have a hedgehog that has seen fit to park in front of my porch and stand guard. What's worse is that this hedgehog is morbidly obese. There is nothing worse than a fat hedgehog engaged in a game of chicken with you to see who will give first. As of now, I am standing my ground.

Anyway, it is way too early to say anything definitive (which is why this is probably the first post here to broach the subject), but I can't hold out any longer, despite the insanity of the saturated media coverage. I know by giving in and talking about it, I am only serving to feed the beast and perpetuate this ridiculously early prognosticating, but I can't help it. August is a slow fucking news month.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that one of the following seven individuals will be the next leader of the free world. Each has a few chinks in their armor. Each a few skeletons in the closet. And not a single person is running anything close to an inspired early campaign (and given the box that you are forced into when running for President, it is hardly surprising--in this YouTube age, your every move, every word is broken down and distributed and analyzed to death). Despite all being nominally qualified for the job, not a single one is setting the world on fire. I fear this particular clusterfuck to the White House (tm The Daily Show) will be the longest, most drawn out, most expensive and emotionally exhausting in modern history.

So, every few months, I resolve to to a Power Ranking of all seven individuals. The spot each one earns at any given moment will be based on a multitude of factors--poll numbers, money raised, fewest campaign screwups, discipline and coherence of message, ect. Of course, these spots only reflect a snapshot in time, and I always reserve the right to change my mind. Ultimately, what each ranking represents in my mind is if the election were held today, who ultimately has the best chance of being President. At this point in time, I am dismissing the Bidens and Brownback, ie the Second Tier candidates who haven't done anything at this point to shake up perceptions. This list is strictly for the Big Time. After the Iowa Straw poll this weekend and into the Fall as new finds are raised and the caucusing in Iowa and NH begin anew, things will come into better focus. But for now......



1. Mitt Romney-- Candidacy slowly catching fire; most money raised amongst GOP contenders. Done an impressive job wooing social conservatives and is most adept at walking that fine line between praising Bush and distancing himself from the President's shitty and disastrous policies.
He makes a ton of ridiculous gaffes, but has charisma. Loved in the business community. Proved he can govern in a politically divided atmosphere (got universal health care done in Massachussetts). He is the one candidate who has surged from relatively unknown cultlike religious freak to bona fide contender. Only in America.

2. Rudolph Giuliani-- Huge hurdles to overcome in GOP Primary season, particularly among social conservatives, but he has kept pace in the money chase, and national poll numbers are unbelievably strong. His moderate social policies combined with tough talk on terror and record of relative success in NYC (even though he basically ran a feckless police state) should help him a ton in the general election--he is a consensus candidate; I just don't believe the GOP will give him their seal of approval.

3. Fred Thompson-- Huge hype surrounds him, but his stealth campaign to be the white knight riding in to save his party from turmoil seems to have hit a few snags. He keeps delaying his announcement, and his fund raising numbers are sort of anemic. Still, his socially conservative policies and military tough talk make the grassroots' hearts go pitter-pat.
They see him as Reagan Redux, which is a bit overblown, but is the only non-Obama candiate who marginally excites people. At this point, he is poised to win big in southern states, and that might start a stampede.

4. Hillary Clinton-- Tough, disciplined campaigner who will cut your balls off in order to win. She has tons of money and the support of the Democratic Party establishment, which propelled John Kerry to the nomination over Howard Dean in 2004. She has the old Clintonistas backing her, and whatever strand of big business that supports the Democratic Party is solidly backing her. She is the toughest, most organized, most single minded son of a bitch running. National poll numbers are strong as hell and no major gaffes so far, but watch out for the state polls, where Edwards and Obama have made things interesting. As great a campaigner as she is, I don't think I am the only one who senses a fundamental lack of passion or the ability to stir same in people. Her success is bloodless, emotionless. She stands for nothing except the promulgation of herself, and as competent an administrator as she would be, I think that lack of innate passion will hurt her. She has so far been technically correct, almost flawless. But their is some type of emotional/charismatic chip missing. Watching her campaign is like watching Matt Baumgart play the piano. Efficient, but bloodless. I think this may catch up to her at some point, but most likely in the general election.

5. Barack Obama--He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong; fund raising numbers are huge as hell, keeping pace with Clinton. Policy positions are well articulated, particularly for a national political neophyte. His poll numbers are solid and he stands to take advantage of any Clinton slip up. Many, however, (including myself?) speculate that perhaps his support is a mile wide and an inch deep, a la Howard Dean. Most of the people contributing money to his campaign are 19 year old college students...will they be organized and disciplined enough to turn out the vote for him during the Iowa Caucases or the New Hampshire Primary? Plus, I can't shake the feeling that his otherworldly oratorical gifts that have brought so many disaffected people into the political sphere are getting severely neutered by the bruising straitjacket that is Presidential campaigning. He can't orate and make your heart soar anymore because he has to project a sort of understated, pragmatic sobriety that these campaigns require. He is still very much in the game, but to beat the establishment candidate, to beat the Democratic infrastructure, I don't think he can play her game. She is too good.

6. John McCain-- Right now, a fucking disaster. One time consensus candidate of a majority of Americans has seen his credibility battered over his insane support of the Bush foreign policy doctrine and his pandering to religious bigots. He has fired top campaign staff and he is hemorraging money. But don't count him out. I can totally see him using this opportunity with his back against the wall to go back to his Straight Talk shtick and pound Giuliani, Thompson and Romney for their ties to lobbyists and their status quo symbolism. If casualties start to slow down in Iraq (I'm not holding my breath) and Petraeus, Bush and The Surge end up looking like a good idea, McCain will be the beneficiary. He is still too well regarded to go down without a fight. Right now, he sucks. But he, more than anyone else in contention right now, has the ability to get back into the game with one swing.

7. John Edwards-- Adopted the Dick Gephardt fiery populist platform. Focused on unions, poverty, health care. Did this because he realized that the only way to remain viable in a Democratic field that contains rock stars Clinton and Obama is to assume the mantle of the champion of the lower class. So far, he is still polling decently, and I've seen figures where he actually leads in Iowa. Fund raising is mediocre, but this is nonsuprising because the other two suck up all the political oxygen. If he pulls out a 2nd place finish in Iowa or even a victory (not a stretch given his numbers and his populist appeal), he leapfrogs Obama as the #1 alternative to a Clinton Democratic coronation. He is still the best natural campaigner of all the Democrats. The downside? No one featuring a platform like him has ever won over the party faithful.


This is where I see all 7 viable contenders as Mid August approaches...what do you think?