Cowboy Up: Prediction Time

Enough of this pussyfooting around. The time has come. With five days out, I am calling on all members of the Lemur to come forward and make their final, FINAL, predictions for Election Day. I want the following information: Who wins the Presidency, final popular vote percentage, final Electoral Vote tally. You can throw in a paragraph or three to summarize your findings. I know five days may well be a lifetime in presidential politics, but I'm ready to declare and I think you all should be, too. Here I go:

Obama wins, 48%-44% and gets 338 Electoral Votes to McCain's 200.

I am pretty sure the polls, which roughly show Obama at a 6% lead right now, will tighten up slightly over the weekend. Undecideds seem to be breaking for McCain, but the early voting numbers for Obama should give him a buffer. I think a 4% victory is a pretty decent estimate. In terms of the electoral map, I think (thanks to a battering ram of advertising and a vastly superior ground game) Obama flips Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Ohio to add to the 252 votes that John Kerry got.

I think McCain manages to hang on to Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina to get him to 200 Electoral Votes. Given the drumming his campaign has (deservedly) taken in the press for being so comically inept, 200 and 44% will be a decent showing for him. Granted, a lot of these numbers will be the result of virulent racists voting against their economic interests based on half-truths and misinformation, but you take what you can get.

Obama fails to break 50% (just like Bill Clinton), but a win is a win. It won't be that close, but it certainly won't be a realigning landslide. What do you think?