A locus for eccentrics (hopefully)

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Cowboy Up: Prediction Time

Enough of this pussyfooting around. The time has come. With five days out, I am calling on all members of the Lemur to come forward and make their final, FINAL, predictions for Election Day. I want the following information: Who wins the Presidency, final popular vote percentage, final Electoral Vote tally. You can throw in a paragraph or three to summarize your findings. I know five days may well be a lifetime in presidential politics, but I'm ready to declare and I think you all should be, too. Here I go:

Obama wins, 48%-44% and gets 338 Electoral Votes to McCain's 200.

I am pretty sure the polls, which roughly show Obama at a 6% lead right now, will tighten up slightly over the weekend. Undecideds seem to be breaking for McCain, but the early voting numbers for Obama should give him a buffer. I think a 4% victory is a pretty decent estimate. In terms of the electoral map, I think (thanks to a battering ram of advertising and a vastly superior ground game) Obama flips Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Ohio to add to the 252 votes that John Kerry got.

I think McCain manages to hang on to Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina to get him to 200 Electoral Votes. Given the drumming his campaign has (deservedly) taken in the press for being so comically inept, 200 and 44% will be a decent showing for him. Granted, a lot of these numbers will be the result of virulent racists voting against their economic interests based on half-truths and misinformation, but you take what you can get.

Obama fails to break 50% (just like Bill Clinton), but a win is a win. It won't be that close, but it certainly won't be a realigning landslide. What do you think?

4 Comments:

Blogger steve said...

Obama breaks 50, say 51 or 52 at least.

Your electoral total sounds pretty close to right to me though.

2:16 PM

 
Blogger neill said...

You don't have to be a virulent racist to fall prey to symbolic racism.

I think that the only Republican stronghold that Obama will actually take is Virginia, where Mark Warner's 20 point lead in the Senate race will help him along. Florida (racist, elderly Jews) and Ohio (populist, racist blue-collar workers) will stay with McCain--despite being free of Ken Blackwell--along with Pennsylvania. With growing Hispanic rejection of the GOP, Obama, could win the popular vote by as much as 5 points, but the electoral count will be 270-268.

2:42 PM

 
Blogger Omar said...

270-268? You think even Pennsylvania goes? I will bet you two dollars that the Dems hang onto it.

3:44 PM

 
Blogger neill said...

I do. I'm too cynical to believe that the poll indicators are right that McCain's number is steady there despite a full 10 days of race-baiting Palin rallies, and it seems like an obvious misstep for Obama to take the state so lightly that he's taking victory laps in places like Iowa instead.

7:54 PM

 

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